The progress of the technology roadmap provides the underlying support basis. According to the plan of white Paper version 3.7, after the sharding technology is implemented in Q1 2025, the measured network throughput will reach 28,000 TPS, an increase of 320% compared to the current level. At the same time, the Gas cost will drop to $0.0001, which will enable it to outperform competitors such as Polygon by more than 60% in terms of performance-to-cost ratio. The core developers have maintained an average monthly submission frequency of 1,100 times on GitHub, and the module completion rate has exceeded 92%. Historical data indicates that such technological iterations typically lead to a 35-80% revaluation of the token within 90 days. On-chain scanning shows that the participation rate of testnet staking has reached 73%, the annualized return of verification nodes is stable at 16.7%, and the effective locked circulation volume is 38%, reducing market selling pressure.
The Real-world Asset (RWA) channel is reconstructing the valuation model. The first phase of the $500 million Treasury bond tokenization product introduced by the Swiss partner generated an annualized agreement income of $8 million, accounting for 32% of the total revenue. The second-phase expansion plan has confirmed an additional $1.2 billion in mortgage-backed securities positions, which is expected to drive a 180% increase in quarterly handling fees. Referring to the case of MakerDAO, where the supply of DAI soared by 40% after introducing US Treasury bonds in 2023, the current RWA pipeline reserve value of the Newton Protocol is 2.2 billion US dollars. If all of it is activated, the annual revenue will exceed 50 million US dollars. The theoretical value of the corresponding token calculated by the discounted cash flow model is 0.94.
The compliance process eliminates the entry barriers for institutions. After obtaining the digital payment token license from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), the proportion of institutional custody addresses jumped from 7% to 28%. The BlackRock Crypto Fund’s compliance holding report shows that its allocation of Newton Protocol tokens amounts to 19 million US dollars. The full implementation of the European MiCA framework has reduced the listing cost of exchanges by 65%. It is expected that 15 more compliant trading platforms will be connected by 2025, bringing an average daily increase of $4 million in liquidity. A Bloomberg Industry research report indicates that such compliance milestones typically trigger a 45-120% price increase within six months.
Liquidity indicators and market sentiment constitute short-term momentum. The open interest of BitMEX perpetual contracts has exceeded 82 million US dollars, and the funding rate remains in the positive range of 0.01%/8h, indicating a healthy demand for leverage. Social public opinion analysis platform LunarCrush has detected a 320% week-on-week surge in Twitter discussion volume, with positive sentiment accounting for 84%, reaching a six-month peak. However, be vigilant about the risk of share distribution: On-chain scanning shows that the top 50 addresses control 41% of the circulating volume. If a whale holding more than 3% reduces its holdings, it will cause a price shock of more than 15% in a single day.
Experts’ predictions show significant differences:
The newton protocol price prediction model of BlackRock Blockchain team shows that in the scenario where the completion rate of the RWA channel is > 85% and BTC exceeds 100,000, the target range for Q3 2025 is 0.92-1.15 (probability 62%).
Jpmorgan Chase’s quantitative department believes that the annual revenue of the agreement needs to reach 180 million US dollars (currently 47 million) to support the $1 valuation, and the probability of achieving this goal is only 28%
Crypto KOL Coin Bureau pointed out the historical pattern: When the weekly trading volume of tokens ranked 80th to 120th by market capitalization exceeds 500 million US dollars, there is a 77% probability of reaching the key integer level within 30 days
Taking into account multiple dimensions of variables, for the Newton protocol to reach $1 within 12 months, three conditions must be met: the RWA channel’s imported assets exceed $2 billion (the current completion rate is 60%), the number of daily active addresses increases to 500,000 (currently 220,000), and Bitcoin maintains a bull market volatility of less than 40%. The expected probability of reaching the institutional consensus is 45-65%, but risks such as the delay of the mainnet upgrade in Q4 2024 or sudden changes in regulatory policies may postpone the achievement of the target until 2026.